In the long run, the final verdict on the slowly unfurling "Tatgate" scandal at Ohio State is still in the hands of the NCAA: The ongoing investigation of coach Jim Tressel's deliberate cover-up of NCAA violations hover over the program like those apocalyptic green Midwestern storm clouds, equally capable of passing without incident or unleashing immense violence at any moment. But as far as the 2011 season is concerned, now that the appeal process has run its course, the reality of five-game suspensions for Tressel and four senior offensive starters is setting in for real.
In practice, that means OSU faces nearly half a season not only without its head coach, but also without virtually its entire offensive production over the last two years. Suspended quarterback Terrelle Pryor has started 36 straight games dating back to the fourth game of his freshman season. Between Pryor, suspended running back Boom Herron, suspended receiver DeVier Posey and outgoing seniors Dane Sanzenbacher and Brandon Saine, the Buckeyes open the season sans more than three-fourths of the team's total yards from scrimmage in 2010 (76.3 percent, to be exact), after the same five accounted for 80 percent of the production in 2009. Along with left tackle Mike Adams, another senior, that group formed the core of Ohio State's Big Ten championship teams the past two seasons and would have spearheaded another run at a conference or national crown this fall.
Of course, they still can, if either goal is still within reach when they return to the lineup in October. In their place, though, there will be a quarterback with no significant game action, quite possibly even a true freshman; a running back platoon (Jordan Hall and Jaamal Berry) that's seen the field mostly in the return game; and a pair of starting receivers (most likely sophomores Corey Brown and Chris Fields) with only a handful of garbage-time receptions between them. They'll also be operating with an interim left tackle. And, right, the temporary head coach, which also means a new play-caller (most likely offensive coordinator Jim Bollman) for the first time in a decade.
That's for five games, in three of which (disregarding the warmups against Akron and Toledo on Sept. 3 and 10) the suspensions and subsequent inexperience on offense actually puts games the Buckeyes would otherwise be favored to win in various degrees of doubt: at Miami on Sept. 17, back home against Colorado on Sept. 24 and, most importantly, against Michigan State on Oct. 1, the Big Ten opener. There are three possible ways to endure that stretch:
? Steely resolve. Whether they believe it or not, the Buckeyes are certain to outwardly adopt the standard "Us Against the World" template, which in this case goes part and parcel with the "Next Man In" template. Both of which earn the endorsement of Tressel's predecessors:
… "It could give your team a little motivation, knowing its head coach isn't there," former OSU coach John Cooper said. "They could play a little harder."
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"Now we will find out how much leadership ability those assistant coaches have," [former OSU coach Earle] Bruce said. "If they can take over like that guy did last year up at Michigan State (when Don Treadwell stepped in for several games while coach Mark Dantonio recovered from heart trouble), that would be perfect."Bruce said it's comforting to know that Tressel won't be restricted from any of his other duties during the spring or in the weeks leading up to the season. "He's got all week to help them prepare, and make sure everything is written down as far as what he wants done," Bruce said. "Then it's just a matter of executing the game plan."
Which game plan, considering the total dearth of experience on offense and the arch-conservative bent of the Tressel administration in general, is basically to do what Tresselball is designed to do: Run the ball, keep the quarterback out of trouble, play defense and win with a final score as close to 7-3 as possible and leave the style points for the second half of the season. Which brings us to…
? Survival instinct. The defense is relatively unaffected by the suspensions, but the fact remains that it's much harde to unexpectedly lose four starters on offense when you're also sending off seven starters on defense at the same time ? Ohio State is breaking in two new starters on the defensive line (one of which would have been Solomon Thomas, the only defender forced to sit), two at linebacker and three in the secondary. Essentially, then the Buckeyes will stare down two of their toughest games of the season ?�at Miami and against Michigan State, likely to begin the season as the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten with an early, opportunistic triumph in Columbus ?�with only eight returning starters, fewer than any other team in the country except Auburn.
Under the circumstances, an early blemish doesn't have to derail the season ? especially if it's at Miami, which has no bearing on the Big Ten championship. A loss to Michigan State would linger in the standings for the rest of the season, but the Spartans are in the Legends Division, leaving the Leaders Division still ripe for the taking when the stars return. As long as OSU remains competitive and gets through the suspension period with its dignity and confidence intact, its larger goals will still be there.
? Total collapse. Ohio State has been the most consistent program in college football for almost a solid decade ? no other major program at the moment is close to six consecutive conference championships or eight BCS bids in nine years ? and the combination of attrition, distraction and disarray seems like the exact formula for at least temporarily busting such a precarious streak. (See: The abrupt fall of USC.) As far as the standings are concerned, the Big Ten title will still be within reach when Tressel returns to the sideline and Pryor and Co. to lineup in October. But the sense that Ohio State is bound for it because it's Ohio State is at least somewhat dependent on the team looking like a reasonable facsimile of Ohio State in the meantime, or risk to succumbing to the bad vibes that will inevitably accompany a blowout loss, or multiple losses, or a ghastly upset at the hands of Colorado, from which it would hard to see the undermanned cast recovering in time to drop MSU the following week.
My sense is that the emaciated edition will struggle and probably drop a game against Miami or Michigan State, while still playing well enough to keep the season devolving into a lost cause. But there is no buffer ?�the Buckeyes first game at full strength is at Nebraska, and they get Wisconsin three weeks later. If morale suffers enough early on, the hole can be too deep for the returning exiles to dig everyone out in time.to salvage anything Ohio State fans usually consider worth caring about.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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