Peruse the AL batting leaders and its cluttered with the usual suspects ? Ichiro, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and NL transfer Adrian Gonzalez. Additional contact standouts Jason Kubel, Adam Lind and Michael Young, have unsurprisingly rejoined the hitting elite after a one-year hiatus. However, one unpredictable name currently near the top of the chart is not only shocking, it's prompted many to repeatedly ask the same rhetorical question: What the …
Say hello (possibly again) to Matt Joyce.
Through the quarter mark of the season, the blooming outfielder has quietly sizzled in the air-conditioned comforts of Tropicana Field. With Manny Ramirez allegedly conserving estrogen for his winter league stint in the Dominican, Sean Rodriguez unable to seize the moment and Desmond Jennings rotting away at Triple-A, Joyce has earned regular playing time in right and a run-knocking spot in Joe Maddon's order, forcing even shallow-minded owners to dash madly to the wire to acquire the rising star's services.
The jubilation expressed for a player undrafted in roughly 98-percent of Yahoo! leagues is completely justified. Over his first 39 games (123 at-bats), he's amassed a .366-6-19-24-3 line (1.030 OPS), good enough for 10th best among outfielders and a top-30 rank overall. That's remarkable production considering he's often ridden the pine against lefties (.188 BA). On a per game basis according to Baseball Monster, he actually checks in at No. 23 among hitters, ahead of such drooled-over powerhouses as Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki and Mark Teixeira.
Despite Joyce's esteemed statistical company, Maddon remains apprehensive about declaring the 26-year-old an everyday player. Maybe it's time to wipe the fog off your Buddy Hollies, Joe. From the Tampa Tribune:
"He's just got into a nice little groove right now. He's not missing his pitch when he sees it," manager Joe Maddon said.
Maddon went on to add that Joyce is benefiting from facing mostly right-handed pitching. Joyce was batting an AL-high .395 against righties. In 15 at-bats against lefties, Joyce is batting .113.
"My guess right now is that it has a little to do with why he's hitting so well against righties," Maddon said. "He's fresh and he's being spotted against the guys he has a much better chance of being successful against."
Maddon said there will be a day when Joyce is an everyday player, but it's not going to be anytime soon. Maddon also said he's reluctant to give Joyce extended playing time against lefties, because he doesn't want to risk sending him into a slump.
Joyce, who again stated that he's ready to play every day no matter who is pitching, said his success is due to his daily routine.
"You can't control if you get a hit or not," he said, "but you can control whether or not you have a good at-bat, what pitches you swing at, the preparation and routine you have every day, and that's a big part of it."
Most novice fantasy managers would characterize Joyce's dramatic transformation as fluky. His uninspiring four-year career would barely arouse an owner in a Matt-only league (Sidebar: For those interested, Latos is one 't' shy of qualifying). In fact, when tabbed a pick-up in this space just three weeks ago, a handful of psychic commenters described the recommendation as "hard to understand," "completely clueless" and, from the AMA accredited Dr. Dickweed, "not worthy in a 30-team league." Their shortsightedness wasn't abnormal. Reluctance to trust new sources of production is very common in fantasy circles. Remember how long it took people to accept Jose Bautista last year?
To sabermetricians, however, the Ray was embraced years ago. Suffice it to say, his rise to prominence has been a long time coming.
Beneath the surface, Joyce has always possessed the baseline skills needed to develop into a reliable multi-cat mixed-league producer ? .230-plus ISO, above average plate discipline, natural swing loft. Those characteristics led some scouts to compare him to such NL namesakes as Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier, parallels that led several fanalysts, including yours truly, to prematurely hop on the bandwagon after he was acquired from Detroit for Edwin Jackson three years ago. Unfortunately, various injuries and prolonged stretches of underperformance quickly doused excitement. But based on his early season production, those unglamorous memories are clearly in the distant past.
The secret to Joyce's success is largely due to a personality change at the dish. Evident in his dip in walks percentage, he's exuded a more aggressive demeanor swinging at wheelhouse pitches earlier in counts, especially over the inner half. As a result, he's crushed fastballs with regularity, peppering the outfield with an obscene amount of line-drives (28.6 LD%) and the bleachers with occasional round-trippers.
Can he possibly keep it up?
Joyce's unusually high .424 BABIP and sub-80 contact rate suggest it's very unlikely he'll be able to maintain a batting average above .310, let alone .360. Inevitably, his BA should regress closer to a more sensible level, possibly bottoming out in the .295-.300 range. Still his .236 ISO, which is comparable to perennial slammers Adrian Beltre and Robinson Cano, arrows to 25-30 home runs. Throw in his regular appearance in the 3-5 spots and comfort level in those positions where he's batting a superhuman .432, and the lefty-swinger is also a strong candidate to finish well into the 80s in RBIs and runs. And that could be a conservative estimate. If Sunday's homer off southpaw Mike Gonzalez is a sign, he could finally gain Maddon's confidence versus lefties, boosting his chances to inflict damage.
Owners aiming to turn a quick profit have probably considered dishing him off, but the rather stodgy names he's recently attracted in one-for-one deals (Kyle Lohse, Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Pena and Bobby Abreu) implies it's best for Joyce investors to stay the course. Prospective shoppers simply won't offer fair market value for a perceived unproven player.
Still, salvagers who rescued the red-hot Ray from the free agent pool a couple weeks ago will be thrilled with the treasure's final estimated worth.
Joyce is finally putting it all together.
Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 398 at-bats, .286 BA, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 72 R, 9 SB
DISCOUNT DEN
Interesting commodities owned in 20-percent or less of Yahoo! leagues
Nate McLouth, Atl, OF (11-percent owned) ? Unnoticed by most of the fantasy community,� McLouth appears to have knocked off his McLousy side, sinking it to the muddy bottom of the Chattahoochee. Recording a hit in five of his past seven, he has been elevated from the eighth to second spot in the order, a position he could net additional time in if Jason Heyward is unable to shake the injury imp. It's easy to forget, but less than a handful of seasons ago, McLouth was in the midst of a breakthrough campaign. In 2008, with the Pirates, he totaled an outstanding .273-26-94-114-23 line, the 21st-best output among hitters. Because of his shrinking ISO, sharp GB/FB increase ('08: 0.74, '11: 1.46) and slowed wheels it's very unlikely he'll replicate those numbers. But on pace for 92 runs and still capable of low double-digit yields in homers and steals, he's at least a serviceable No. 5 outfielder in 12-team and deeper mixers.
Tyson Ross, Oak, SP/RP (seven-percent) ? News of Dallas Braden's surgical demise means the Ryan Howard (via Scranton, not Philly) of the A's rotation has officially graduated from temp to full-timer. His promotion is well-deserved. Over his past four turns, the top prospect has prospered, logging four consecutive quality starts. During that stretch, the 24-year-old has compiled a superb 1.72 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and two wins. Many free agent scavengers will be unimpressed with his 6.00 ERA and 3.71 xFIP, but his above average fastball/slider combination and ability to coax numerous groundball outs (1.53 GB/FB) are nothing to scoff at. Growing more and more comfortable with every turn, Ross admitted recently he's "still a work in progress," but confidently expressed he's "finding a little bit of a groove." Given his overall talent, friendly home environment and cemented spot in the rotation, he's a fine back-of-the-rotation addition in deeper mixers. Peering into the crystal ball, he's certainly capable of a 10-12 wins, sub-4.00 ERA and 140 Ks.
Justin Turner, NYM, 2B/3B (one-percent) ? Narrowly beating out Jorge Posada for Big Apple Player of the Week honors, the Mets' hidden gem has burst onto the fantasy scene without much fanfare, collecting eight hits, five runs, one home run and seven RBIs since May 10. With David Wright out for at least the next couple weeks with a stress fracture in his back, Turner is expected to slide over from second to fill the void at the hot corner, gaining eligibility at third by the weekend. Though the former Fullerton standout doesn't possess an elite pedigree, his noteworthy season last year at Triple-A Buffalo (312 at-bats, .333-11-35-58-5) and subsequent major league equivalents (.288/.340/.434) suggest he's no schmo either. Obviously, he's only rosterable in leagues with scant resources, but considering the bloodshed that's occurred at third base, he could be a much needed stopgap in deeper formats, especially if he continues to hit sixth. If your current replacement is driving you to the Jager, ponder Turner long and hard.
Want to bean Brad in the head? Bring the heat on Twitter @YahooNoise.
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Images courtesy of US Presswire
Dominique Swain Jamie Chung Alicia Witt Radha Mitchell Melissa Rycroft
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